George MeliosCV & Portfolio
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About

g.melios@lse.ac.uk
Researcher at the Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science at the LSE

Researcher and Lecturer at the Department of Psychological & Behavioural Science at the London School of Economics. Currently also a Research Advisor to Gallup.

Research

My research primarily focuses on using applied microeconometrics to examine behavioral phenomena in politics and economics with large, naturally occurring data sets.


More details on current work can be found under Research. Current working papers are available on SSRN & Google Scholar.

Recent work has been covered in the press such as in The Economist, The Guardian, The Nation, Kathimerini (Greek) & To Vima (Greek).

Teaching

Causal Inference for Behavioural Science – MSc in Behavioural Science (PB4A7)

Lectures: Monday 10:00-11:00
Seminars: Monday 12:00-16:00
Office Hours: Tuesday 11:30-13:00

Funding

Currently, I am a co-Investigator at a BA/Leverhulme Small Grant (2023), two (2) Horizon 2020 funded projects (PARTICIPATION, REFUGE-ED) (2021), and a Leverhulme Trust funded project on the informal labor market in Lebanon.

More details can be found under Funding.

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CV

You can download the latest version of my CV (February 2023)

Current Affiliations
  • Oct. 2021
    Oct 2023
    London, UK

    Researcher

    London School of Economics & Political Sciences

    Working on the drivers of polarisation, norms and beliefs
  • Jan. 2020
    Oct. 2021
    London, Uk

    Senior Research Fellow

    University College London

    Working on inequalities in the UK, Lebanon & Kenya and on a Discrete Choice Experiment in multiple locations in Lebanon.
  • July 2022
    Present
    London

    Research Advisor

    Gallup International

Education
  • 2016
    2021
    Cardiff, UK

    D.Phil. in Economics

    Swansea University

  • 2015
    2016
    Cardiff, UK

    M.Sc. in Financial Economics

    Cardiff University

  • 2010
    2015
    Athens, GR

    B.Sc. in Economic and Regional Development

    Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences

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Research

Current Projects

Shifting Involvements or Shifting Identities? The Effect of Religion on Political & Economic Identity (2023) with Bouke Klein Teeselink – Funded by the British Academy

For many western societies, secularisation has been one of the most profound social changes of the recent past. Nevertheless, many of its consequences remain unknown. On the one hand, people who de-identify with religion may seek their social identity in other sources such as politics. Alternatively, religious de-identification may cause a retreat into private life, whereby people shift their focus from religious pursuits towards material well-being. The proposed research uses US clergy scandals to examine the causal effect of secularisation on political identification and economic behaviour. To measure political identification, we consider turnout rates, political donations, and feelings towards opposing parties. For economic behaviour, we consider consumption decisions, saving decisions, and economic prosperity. Taken together, these measures provide a comprehensive picture of both political identification and economic behaviour, which allows us to answer the question whether religious de-identification causes either political polarisation or increased focus on materialistic pursuits.

Regression to the extreme: Why are we becoming increasingly polarised? (2022-2024) with Paul Dolan

Communist propaganda, proxy wars and political violence: Evidence from Greece (2023-2024) with Vasileios Logothetis


Working Papers

Origin of (A)symmetry: The Evolution of Out-Party Distrust in the United States (2023) – with B. Klein Teeselink

Research in political psychology suggests that conservatives are more certainty-seeking than liberals, which makes them less receptive to information that conflicts with their political identity and more predisposed towards in-group/out-group bias. As a consequence, some argue that polarization is stronger on the right than on the left and that conservatives are more likely to support governments run by their own side and more distrustful of governments run by their political opponents. This so-called asymmetric president-in-power effect might tilt the political playing field in favor of Republicans. The current paper calls into question some of these findings by examining the evolution of the president-in-power effect between 1974 and 2021. Mirroring the general rise in polarization, we document a steady increase in the effect both on the right and on the left. Contrasting the narrative that polarization is stronger on the right, however, we find evidence that the president-in-power effect has grown stronger among Democrats than Republicans. To explain this finding, we show that highly educated people, who display a stronger president-in-power effect than lower educated people, have shifted towards the left in recent years. Taken together, our results paint a nuanced picture of asymmetric polarization picture that highlights the importance of studying the evolution of partisan biases over time.

Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election (2021) – w. Bouke Klein Teeselink

Do mass mobilizations bring about social change? Prior research provides mixed findings on whether large-scale collective action helps protesters further their cause. This paper adds new evidence to this debate by investigating the causal impact of racial injustice protests on the 2020 presidential election. Following the death of G. P. Floyd Jr. on 25 May 2020, a series of Black Lives Matter protests erupted across the US. Using cross-county variation in rainfall as an exogenous source of variation in protests, we document a marked shift in support for the Democratic candidate in counties that experienced more protesting activity. As a consequence, BLM protests might have tilted the election in favor of the democratic party. We additionally document that BLM protests did not affect the overall turnout rate, which suggests that the increase in Democratic support primarily resulted from a progressive shift among undecided voters. 

Partisanship, Government Responsibility and Charitable Donations (2022) – w. Bouke Klein Teeselink

A large literature in public economics seeks to answer whether government activity crowds out charitable donations, but the empirical evidence is mixed. To resolve this inconsistency, we consider that people base their donation decisions not only on government spending per se, but also on their support of the government. Using US tax return data, we find that support for the incumbent president crowds out charitable donations. The reduction in donations cannot be explained by changes in government spending, beliefs about government spending, government grants to Republican or Democrat-leaning charities, or fundraising activity. Instead, it is consistent with the notion that partisans attribute greater problem-solving responsibilities to own-party governments.

Who needs security in a crisis? Evidence from a field experiment in Lebanon (2022) – w. Yara Sleiman, Elisabetta Pietrostefani & Henrietta Moore

A large body of literature in economics and development seeks to understand the workings of informality in labor markets. While extensive research has been conducted on the effects of informality on the economy, the empirical evidence about which employees enter the informal labor market remains mixed. This study aims to shed light on individual preferences for formal and informal work arrangements in a context of severe uncertainty. Drawing on qualitative insights from focus group discussions, we contextualize and operationalize informality within the Lebanese labor market and design a field discrete choice experiment (N=1,450) to elicit employment preferences. Our findings indicate that employees tend to favor job choices that offer social protection and private insurance but do not require formal contracts, even when these jobs lack specific skill requirements. A subsequent Latent Class Analysis enabled us to identify distinct skill-level typologies of informal workers. We found significant differences in their valuation of social security coverage, with high-skilled workers showing a lower preference for jobs with formal protection. The results have broad policy implications for tax and social security legislation.

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Teaching

Academic year 2022-2023

Quantitative Applications for Behavioural Science – MSc in Behavioural Science

Quantitative applications for Behavioural Science – MSc in Behavioural Science (PB4A7)

Lectures: Monday 10:00-11:00
Seminars: Monday 12:00-16:00
Office Hours: Tuesday 11:30-13:00 – Book on Calendly

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Funding

PARTICIPATION

Analysing & Preventing Extremism through Participation

The project’s primary purpose is to prevent extremism, radicalisation and polarisation that can lead to violence through more effective social and education policies and interventions that target at risk groups to be performed through the establishment of a holistic framework and the engagement\involvement of social actors, local communities, civil society, and policymakers. Objectives and expected impact to develop an holistic multidimensional model based on a participatory fieldwork and a mixed method approach, analysing and discussing through an action research strategy involving young people in different side of Europe, the socio psychologic mechanisms that lead to extremism, radicalisation and polarisation, to identify future perspectives and trends of hate speech, extremism and radicalisation, developing communicative tools, education approaches and community-based strategies, to improve the awareness of young people and communities as well as the society at whole, to realize databases and a systematic set of indexes and early-warnings, developing a set of policies recommendations with the participation of stakeholders, policy-makers and targets, Methodologies PARTICIPATION project starts to the assumption that broken a top-down approach in research and in preventive design is needed. In fact, an holistic approach leads to consider vulnerable people as protagonists of the research processes and as producers of knowledge on themselves, included the way and the strategies for preventing extremism and radicalisation. So, if a mixed method approach that combine qualitative and quantitative data is a fundamental methodological way in order to catch all the complexity of processes at micro, meso and macro levels, it will be linked to an action research approach, based on open discussion focus groups, traffic between researchers, stakeholders, practitioners and social actors (particularly young people for previous reasons). Funded by the European Commission – Horizon 2020 program. Co-Investigator with KMOP – Social Innovation Action Centre Total Grant Value: EUR 2.918.100

Informality in Lebanon

Supporting Macroeconomic Stability and Prosperity in an Age of Mass Displacement

This project is a study of decision-making processes related to livelihood strategies and prosperity in the context of mass displacement and informal labour markets in Lebanon. Informal labour markets are growing around the world, even in contexts where GDP growth is strong. Yet, there is a dearth of up-to-date data on such markets, how they function within broader livelihood strategies, and how their dynamics operate at individual, household, community and regional scales. This study focuses on an innovative interdisciplinary methodological and theoretical framework to improve our understanding of informal labour markets and their connections to livelihoods and sustainable prosperity under conditions of uncertainty and resource constraint. The project aims to develop a series of methods, models and concepts for understanding livelihood decision-making from the perspective of various actors/agents in Lebanon, across a range of factors such as age, gender, educational qualifications and legal status. Employing an innovative and multi-disciplinary range of insights, methods and tools from anthropology, psychology, econometrics, and behavioural economics, we will build a deeper understanding of both the contributions and the opportunity costs associated with informality in the context of real evidence about people’s location, migration, livelihood and employment preferences. Funded by the Leverhulme Trust. Principal Investigator: Dame H. L. Moore (UCL) Total Grant Value:£250,012

REFUGE-ED

Effective practices in education, mental health and psychosocial support for the integration of refugee children

In the first half of 2019, the EU recorded an increase of 21% new asylum-seekers compared to 2018, being minors almost a third of them. Coping with the highly complex situation faced by refugee and migrant children adds an additional pressure to educational and mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) systems. REFUGE-ED brings together a consortium of 9 partners (from research institutions, to NGOs) from 7 countries to create the Brokering Knowledge Platform (BKP), which will host innovative high-quality solutions addressed to the dynamic integration of migrant children in schools and society. For so doing, REFUGE-ED will identify, implement, and test effective practices in education and MHPSS that promote the educational success, well-being and sense of belonging of children (0-18 years old- ISCED 0-3) from recent migration cohorts, refugees and asylum seekers, and unaccompanied minors. The ground-breaking nature of the BKP relies on its focus on the integration between the fields of education and MHPSS, and on its dialogic co-creation with children, families, teachers, practitioners, policymakers, among other stakeholders, providing the basis for THEeducation system throughout Europe to become authentic refuge for all children. REFUGE-ED will use the Supportive Process for the Inclusion of Children’s Experience (SPICE) under the communicative methodology, to carry out 3 multisite pilot actions across 6 countries (Sweden, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Greece and Bulgaria), in a total of 46 “Communities of Practice and Learning”: hotspots/reception identification, inclusive schools and non-formal/informal social and learning environments, and institutional care (including unaccompanied minors). Informed by these pilots, the co-created BKP will provide solutions to support the reuse, scalability and sustainability of these practices. Ultimately, REFUGE-ED will provide recommendations to stimulate the dynamic integration of migrant children, targeted at four audiences: (1) children and families, (2) communities, civil society organizations and local service providers, (3) schools and teaching staff (including school counsellors or other focal points working on MHPSS needs in the educational arena) and (4) policymakers. Funded by the European Commission – Horizon 2020 program. Under KMOP – Social Innovation Action Centre Total Grant Value: EUR 2.997.830

Rebuilding Macroeconomics

Developing an economy of belonging

For a long time, the goal of economic policy has often been about improving productivity across regions as a pathway towards prosperity and wellbeing. This is problematic both because productivity figures are based on aggregate values of income, wealth, GDP, and GVA and because it is widely recognised that a series of factors including geography, institutions, culture, infrastructure and governance impact directly on productivity differences. The weight and significance of these factors remain poorly understood, and this accounts in large part for the continuing frustration of the UK ‘productivity puzzle’ and structural inequalities. ​ The prosperity of individuals and communities cannot be reduced to aggregate analyses of income, wealth or GDP; it encompasses a series of effects produced in specific times and places through the relationships established by living well together in functioning social, economic, political and ecological systems. Furthermore, the close relationship between political institutions, citizen needs and perceptions, and successful economic transformation in the 21st century has laid down new parameters and created new forms of uncertainty and volatility. ​ In the current context of the Covid-19 crisis, understanding these relationships and identifying what the priorities, infrastructures and mechanisms necessary for developing an economy of belonging, make exploring how to integrate emerging macroeconomic analysis with more local level knowledge a priority. ​ This definitively different from policies formulated through demands to raise GDP, prevent overheating in the economy or determine labour market performance. It requires a new approach directed towards quality of life and long-term prosperity of people and places. This research project explores how macroeconomics can take account of these new uncertainties. By setting up the case and challenges for developing an economy of belonging, this project seeks to rework the relationship between macroeconomics and policy development, on the one hand, and place, livelihoods and infrastructures, on the other hand Funded by the Economics and Social sciences Research Council (ESRC)
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Fieldwork

Recent Fieldwork Sites
Projects number 2

Prosperity in Kenya

Prosperity in Kenya

Informality in Lebanon: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Informality in Lebanon: A Discrete Choice Experiment

About The Project

This project is a study of decision-making processes related to livelihood strategies and prosperity in the context of mass displacement and informal labour markets in Lebanon. Informal labour markets are growing around the world, even in contexts where GDP growth is strong. Yet, there is a dearth of up-to-date data on such markets, how they function within broader livelihood strategies, and how their dynamics operate at individual, household, community and regional scales. This study focuses on an innovative interdisciplinary methodological and theoretical framework to improve our understanding of informal labour markets and their connections to livelihoods and sustainable prosperity under conditions of uncertainty and resource constraint.

The project aims to develop a series of methods, models and concepts for understanding livelihood decision-making from the perspective of various actors/agents in Lebanon, across a range of factors such as age, gender, educational qualifications and legal status. Employing an innovative and multi-disciplinary range of insights, methods and tools from anthropology, psychology, econometrics, and behavioural economics, we will build a deeper understanding of both the contributions and the opportunity costs associated with informality in the context of real evidence about people’s location, migration, livelihood and employment preferences.

Funded by the Leverhulme Trust.

Principal Investigator: Dame H. L. Moore (UCL)

Total Grant Value:£250,012

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Data

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Contact Me

Feel free to reach out!