George MeliosCV & Portfolio

Research

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01 May 2021

Europe in Crisis: Political distrust, Corruption and Austerity

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3847633

Over the past decade European citizens’ confidence in different political institutions has declined sharply. Using data from the Eurobarometer (2005-2018) and hierarchical modelling, the paper combines micro and macro characteristics to identify the importance of perceived corruption and austerity measures in this process. This paper documents that corruption is a significant determinant of trust in national governments in Europe, particularly in countries where austerity was more prominent. Additionally, results document that the effect was equally significant across subgroups of the sample, suggesting that the decline in political trust, even though not uniform across individuals, is not solely driven by individual socioeconomic outcomes.

Europe in Crisis: Political distrust, Corruption and Austerity

About The Publication

Over the past decade European citizens’ confidence in different political institutions has declined sharply. Using data from the Eurobarometer (2005-2018) and hierarchical modelling, the paper combines micro and macro characteristics to identify the importance of perceived corruption and austerity measures in this process. This paper documents that corruption is a significant determinant of trust in national governments in Europe, particularly in countries where austerity was more prominent. Additionally, results document that the effect was equally significant across subgroups of the sample, suggesting that the decline in political trust, even though not uniform across individuals, is not solely driven by individual socioeconomic outcomes.

31 Jul 2021

Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3809877

Abstract: Do mass mobilizations bring about social change? This paper investigates the impact of the Black Lives Matter protests that erupted after George Floyd’s death on the 2020 presidential election. Using local precipitation as an exogenous source of protest variation, we document a marked shift in support for the Democratic candidate in counties that experienced more protesting activity. Ancillary analyses show that increased voter mobilization may explain some but not all of the effect, and that protests shifted people’s attitudes towards racial disparities. Taken together, these findings suggest that BLM protests caused a progressive shift among Independent and Republican oriented voters. Keywords: Collective Action, Black Lives Matter, Presidential Elections, Protests, IV JEL Classification: D72, J15

Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election

About The Publication

Abstract:

Do mass mobilizations bring about social change? This paper investigates the impact of the Black Lives Matter protests that erupted after George Floyd’s death on the 2020 presidential election. Using local precipitation as an exogenous source of protest variation, we document a marked shift in support for the Democratic candidate in counties that experienced more protesting activity. Ancillary analyses show that increased voter mobilization may explain some but not all of the effect, and that protests shifted people’s attitudes towards racial disparities. Taken together, these findings suggest that BLM protests caused a progressive shift among Independent and Republican oriented voters.

Keywords: Collective Action, Black Lives Matter, Presidential Elections, Protests, IV

JEL Classification: D72, J15